In high school, I visited the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory’s fusion reactor, a huge metal donut replicating conditions at the center of our sun. But a more pedestrian 19th century technology caught my eye: giant spinning flywheels providing an electricity buffer so the local electric grid wouldn’t blackout with every reactor startup. I’m reminded of that visit whenever I read reports of energy storage reaching its “holy grail” moment.
While a fusion reactor’s huge load may need storage to buffer its use, the rest of us don’t have to worry turning on our lights or microwave will destabilize the grid. That’s because the grid is a network that aggregates us for central power stations and averages all our idiosyncratic electricity demands into a smooth load profile managed by turning generators up and down. This is the historical reason the electric grid hasn’t needed storage: It is an expensive solution for problems easily solved other ways.
So how should a savvy investor interpret conflicting reports on grid-connected electric batteries’ breakthrough? Morgan Stanley calls it an “underappreciated disruptor,” while Deloitte earmarks it for “exponential growth – although not perhaps this year.” Has energy storage’s moment arrived, or is it still just around the corner?
Be Careful Of Narrow Energy Storage Market Opportunities
One way to understand these predictions is considering the energy storage market as a frozen pond in springtime. The battery production motivated by electric vehicles from giants like LG Chem, Tesla’s Gigafactory and Mercedes, hand-in-hand with plummeting battery costs, is turning up the market’s heat, thawing the pond. Yet like the thawing pond with scattered pockets of meltwater, energy storage has so far only taken off in various niche markets with especially enhanced value propositions.
One of the first utility-scale battery deployment niches has been ancillary services markets, which offer services for maintaining grid reliability. Payments made for small tweaks matching supply and demand on a second-by-second or minute-by-minute basis, often called “frequency response” or “regulation”, are particularly interesting here. In August 2016, the United Kingdom’s grid operator announced 201 megawatts (MW) of winning bids in its first-ever “enhanced frequency response” tender, dominated by battery storage and valued at $86.4 million.
Like scattered meltwater pools, these are relatively shallow markets in the much deeper electricity sector pond because they can only accommodate new projects by the tens and hundreds.
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