Rarely has such a crucial enterprise for the future of human civilization led to such little commercial success.
Long-duration energy storage holds great potential for a world in which wind and solar power dominate new power plant additions and gradually overtake other sources of electricity. Wind and solar only produce at certain times, so they need a complementary technology to help fill the gaps. And the lithium-ion batteries that supply 99 percent of new storage capacity today get very expensive if you try to stretch them out over many hours.
The problem is, no clear winner has emerged to play that long-duration role. Here at Greentech Media, we’ve spent years covering the contenders, which range from quixotic defiers of the laws of physics to understated, scientifically minded strivers. The makeup of this roster has fluctuated to the rhythm of bankruptcies and new investments.
Plenty of options technically “work.” The question is, do they work with an acceptable price point and development cycle, and can the businesses providing them stay afloat long enough to actually prove that? That last step has been hard for companies to fulfill, insofar as in previous years there were practically no places to actually sell this stuff.
That’s finally starting to change, thanks to two connected trends. First, wind and solar are now competing very effectively for capacity additions in the U.S. and other developed countries. The proliferation of these resources creates its own push for long-duration storage in places with high concentrations of wind and solar farms. A particularly appealing early market is in remote or island grids, where renewables-plus-storage already outcompete imported diesel fuel on price.
Second, spurred by this success, many utility companies, states and nations are upping their targets for clean energy. Once a jurisdiction officially commits to 100 percent carbon-free power, it has to start thinking in earnest about how to replace the gas plants that currently provide the flexible counterpart to renewables’ ups and downs. These policies typically give prime billing to the clean energy sources, but they just as well could be considered market-creation tools for the long-duration storage asset class.
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